It’s 2025, the smell of roasted beans permeates the warm, timber walled interior of your coffee shop. Commuter hour has passed and the clientele are looking for something more flavourful than a functional caffeine hit. You reel off the day’s options.
“Single origin Guatemala, great aroma. Dark roast Peru, nutty and smooth, Extremophile Brazil, unique flavour given the climate conditions. The last one’s a genetically modified strain.”
Your customer raises an eyebrow.
“Genetically modified coffee, why would I drink that?”
But with threats of climate change, pests, and a shrinking gene pool, the more pressing question is - why wouldn’t you?
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Two thirds of the coffee drunk today comes from the coffee plant species Arabica. Arabica makes the best-tasting coffee, but has been genetically inbred and is vulnerable to disease. Growers have tried crossing it with other species to increase diversity, but cultivating new strains this way can take 30 years. As far back as 2012, scientists were pointing out the need for genetically modified coffee, which has "tremendous potential" to improve coffee varieties, which would be "difficult to achieve through traditional breeding”.
Genetically modified foods are not grown in the UK. They can however be imported, provided they are appropriately labelled. Whilst the overwhelming majority of scientists believe that genetically modified foods are safe to eat, the public is less convinced. A 2019 study by the University of Rochester put the number as low as just a third of consumers.
Roughly 15% of each year’s coffee crop is lost due to a fungal disease named coffee rust. The fungus that causes coffee rust cannot survive below 10 degrees celcius, but as global heating increases worldwide temperatures, coffee rust may become more of a problem. Researchers estimate that a coffee plant genetically modified to provide immunity to rust disease could be just 10-15 years away.
Climate change may be the biggest threat on the horizon. Coffee only grows in certain climates, and drought and frost can wipe out crops. Climate change projections suggest that the global area of land suitable for growing coffee will decrease by 50% by 2050. The effects will not be felt evenly. In South Sudan and Ethiopia, Arabica populations could decrease by 80%, making the crop officially 'endangered'. In Latin America, coffee-suitable areas could be reduced 73–88% by 2050.
Genetic modification could provide the solution, making plants more tolerant to climate change by enhancing natural stress responses. Coffee plants exposed to drought repeatedly alter their gene expression to help withstand future droughts.
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It’s 2025. Your customer opted for the regular coffee. Despite Food Standards Agency approval, they weren’t sure if it was safe. You turn to put the beans away, but a second customer interjects.
“Did you say the genetically modified ones were better for the environment?” They ask. You nod your head.
“Let’s give them a go.”